New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions (2024)

The New York Mets (19-23) hope to avoid a 4-game sweep as they take on the Philadelphia Phillies (31-13) Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 3-0

Philadelphia defeated New York 10-5 Wednesday, cashing as a -190 home favorite. After missing Tuesday’s win with a migraine, 1B Bryce Harper had a huge night, going 3-for-5 with a 1st-inning homer and a 2-run double in the 5th.

Mets manager Carlos Mendoza admitted after the Mets’ 5th loss in 6 games that his team is “just not clicking right now” as they enter Thursday already 11 games back of Philadelphia in the NL East. On the bright side, DH J.D. Martinezhomered in the 8th inning, his 2nd in the last 5 games.

Mets at Phillies projected starters

LHP Jose Quintana vs. RHP Taijuan Walker

Quintana (1-4, 5.44 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.55 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 41 1/3 innings

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 4-2 home setback to New York Mets Friday
• Career at Citizens Bank Park: 0-2, 4.97 ERA (29 IP, 16 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 4 HR, 13.3 K/9 in 5 starts
• Career vs. Phillies: 0-2, 3.75 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 11.8 K/9 in 9 starts

Walker (3-0, 4.82 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 18 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 8-3 victory at Miami Marlins Saturday
• Career vs. Mets: 1-3, 3.24 ERA (33 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 6.2 K/9 in 6 starts
• 2023 vs. Mets: 1-2, 3.91 ERA (23 IP, 10 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 5.5 K/9 in 4 starts

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Mets at Phillies odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:31 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mets +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Phillies -144 (bet $144 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the Spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-172) | Phillies -1.5 (+142)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -122)

Mets at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Mets 3

Moneyline

BET PHILLIES (-144).

The Phillies are 24-10 in Walker’s starts since he signed a 4-year, $72 million contract after the 2022 season. His offense should be able to offer enough run support as only the Dodgers boast a better OBP (.345) vs. left-handed pitchers than the Phillies.

If you are looking to reduce the juice and prolong a sweat, pairing Phillies ML with Dodgers ML (-300 at home vs. Cincinnati) pays out roughly +125.

Run line/Against the Spread

PASS.

I personally rather avoid laying a run and a half on the home team in a division rivalry. Walker has surrendered more homers in his career to left-handed batters in less plate appearances against compared to right-handed batters. So, it would not come as a surprise if LF Brandon Nimmo went deep early on.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (-122).

Despite struggling in Wednesday’s loss, the Mets bullpen still possess a 2.98 ERA, good for 3rd best in MLB. Quintana did allow 3 ERs or less in 5 of 6 starts to begin the season, so there is a decent chance he’s able to meander successfully through this Phillies lineup a couple of times and pave way to the pen.

Ultimately, New York just does not generate enough offense consistently. Plus, the Mets’ highest paid player SS Francisco Lindoris hitless in the 3 losses vs. the Phillies and is now down to a .200 average on the season.

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