A three-game series in the American League comes to an end on Sunday when the Detroit Tigers (49-50, 4th AL Central) face the Toronto Blue Jays (44-54, 5th AL East). Detroit has controlled this series so far, winning on Friday 5-4, then on Saturday 7-3. In fact, the Tigers have been dominating this matchup all season, holding a 5-1 season series lead. Detroit is sending out Keider Montero (5.47 ERA) while Toronto is going with Kevin Gausman (4.50 ERA). First pitch is scheduled for 1:37 EST from the Rogers Centre in Toronto.
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Detroit's Favorite Opponent
The Tigers are fourth in the AL Central, but have found a ton of success against this particular opponent. Detroit is 5-1 against Toronto this season, and hopes to make that 6-1 with a win on Sunday afternoon. The Tigers are still 11.5-games behind the Guardians for their division lead, and 4.5 games behind the Royals for third place. That being said, they are still in the hunt for the Wild Card, though they have to make up some ground as they are 5.5 games out of the last spot. In Saturday's game, Jake Rogers hit a grand slam in the sixth inning to blow the game open.
Rogers batted sixth in the lineup as the catcher against Toronto. This was his seventh home run of the year, and he is now up to 20 RBIs to go with his .243 batting average. Riley Greene has been their most productive hitter all season, he leads the team with 17 home runs and 51 RBIs, while also having the top batting average out of qualified hitters at .271. Greene sat out Saturday's game, but is still active and will likely play on Sunday. Matt Vierling has 12 home runs on the season, he can play multiple positions in the field and took center field on Saturday. Vierling bats third in the order with 41 RBIs and is batting .251 at the plate. Andy Ibanez batted leadoff for Detroit last game, the second baseman is batting .292 but has only played in 55 games this season.
Keider Montero will make his fifth start of the season, and he has made one other appearance in relief. He is a 24-year old right-hander with a 1-2 record, but the team has won the game in all of his last three starts. His ERA is 5.47 to go with 23 strikeouts against 10 walks, with five allowed home runs on the year. In his last start, Montero pitched five innings, and gave up five runs, but was bailed out by his offense in a win over the Dodgers.
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Blue Jays Lose Four of Five
The Toronto Blue Jays are headed in the wrong direction, as they have lost four of their last five games. This stretch extends through the All-Star Break, but it is clear Toronto is still struggling as of late. The division title is likely out of reach, and they are still 10 games out of the last Wild Card spot, but could still make a push as the post-All Star Break section of the season has just begun. In Saturday's game against Detroit, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit a two-run home run in the 6th inning, but they still lost 7-3.
Guerrero has been carrying this Toronto offense, and will need more help from his teammates as the season continues. He leads the team with 16 home runs, 59 RBIs, 111 hits, and has the best batting average on the team at .293. He bats third in the lineup, typically playing first base, though he lined up at third base on Saturday. George Springer also had an RBI on Saturday, he is their leadoff hitter and starts in right field. Springer has 11 home runs and 37 RBIs on the season, and leads the team with nine stolen bases from the top of the order. Daulton Varsho also has 11 home runs, the outfielder batted sixth against Detroit and has contributed another 38 RBIs but is batting just .201 on the year. Justin Turner took the DH spot and batted fourth, the 39-year old veteran has five home runs and 29 RBIs on the season.
Kevin Gausman will make his 20th start of the season for Toronto, he is a 33-year old right-hander with a 7-8 record, and the team has gone 2-3 overall in his last five starts. His ERA is 4.50 with 104 strikeouts against 27 walks with 15 home runs allowed on the year. In his last start, Gausman pitched seven innings allowing just two earned runs against the Giants in a win.
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Best Bets for Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
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The tides will change in this series, as Toronto avoids the sweep on their home field on Sunday. Gausman gets the start for Toronto here, he is making his 20th start of the year and has been in the starting rotation all season. Gausman faced Detroit once already this year, and had a dominant showing. He posted a 1.50 ERA by allowing just one run over six innings, and only gave up three hits in the game. The Blue Jays have only defeated the Tigers once all season, and guess who the starting pitcher was in that game for Toronto, that's right, it was Gausman. Detroit is sending out the less-experienced Montero, he has only pitched in six games this season, and has a much higher ERA at 5.47. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. proved why he deserved his spot on the All-Star Game by going yard on Saturday, and he will get enough help here to finally grab a win in this series.
Take the Blue Jays to win.
Prediction: Toronto Moneyline
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Gausman pitched well in his one appearance against Detroit, but that does not mean he has been excellent all season. His ERA is still up at 4.50, and he has allowed 11 earned runs over his last three games, including a tough showing against the Yankees where he gave up seven runs. Montero is starting for Detroit, and his ERA is even worse, up at 5.47. Montero gave up five runs in his last outing, and has given up at least one home run in four of his last five games. On top of this, both teams have been trending toward the over recently. Detroit has gone over in six of their last eight games, and Toronto has gone over in all of their last seven outings. Follow the trends on an afternoon where neither team is sending out their top pitcher.
Take the over.
Prediction: Over 8
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